[Brownback] has a better chance of getting hit by a meteor while being consumed by a blue whale being struck by lightening.

They all suck. (Well, okay, Brownback doesn’t suck at all, but I perceive no viability for his candidacy.)

Brownback thus far has not convinced, nor even made inroads in convincing, most GOP primary voters that he has a chance of winning a general election. He is viewed as utterly unelectable due to his views on abortion, gay rights, and religion in government. I sense a sort of pity for Brownback in the conservative blogs. A feeling that he represents all that they do (with the glaring omission of the immigration issue) and because of that has no chance to succeed with the American public at large.

There is one way, and one way only, that Brownback can overcome this electability argument. Cold. Hard. Cash. If he turns in a stellar fundraising report on January 31st he can prove that he is a serious candidate that could be competitive. If he raises a piddly sum, then it will be clear that the GOP donor class does not think he has a chance and thus does not think he is worth the investment.

Candidates are supposed to enjoy the unquestioned backing of their parties in their home states for the obvious benefits it could bring to the state. In 1996, when Bob Dole was the GOP nominee, there seemed no question from the beginning that he would enjoy the support of any Kansas Republican of any prominence.

However, there are questions about whether Brownback can say the same.

Not only does his strong opposition to abortion and embryonic stem cell research bother moderates, but many believe he has actively helped push the state GOP to the right.

“Sen. Brownback has got to reach out to traditional Republicans, and he doesn’t seem too eager to do that,” Ryan Wright, executive director of the moderate Kansas Traditional Republican Majority, said Monday. “That leaves their votes up for grabs.”

I think it really says something when you are too extreme for the Kansas Republican Party. I have heard many of the same arguments coming from some of my Republican friends. Perhaps it is people swinging away from the hardcore Christian conservative mindset. I would note that Operation Rescue (the aborted fetus truck people) tried to stage another massive protest in Wichita that only managed to turn out 20 people.

Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and California Rep. Duncan Hunter (news, bio, voting record) addressed the annual March for Life marking the anniversary of the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling.

“We recognize a tragedy of life in Roe v. Wade, but that tragedy will not always stand,” Brownback told thousands of cheering abortion foes at an afternoon rally.

Two things. First, the more Senator Sam Brownback gets grouped with Duncan Hunter, the worse for his chances in the GOP presidential primary. Hunter is rapidly vying with Tancredo for the honor of being the GOP’s Dennis Kucinich.

Second. Broken freakin’ record. We get it. Sam Brownback doesn’t like abortion. He also doesn’t like contraception, and employs the talents of an adviser who openly advocates for the banning of all forms of contraception. I’ll let you draw conclusions about the type of America Brownback would like to live in. Think Margaret Atwood.

Remember the flat tax? The policy proposal gained traction among conservative politicians for a while in the 1990s, but it withered amid little real-world political support.

Now it’s back, as a fiscal policy cornerstone of Sen. Sam Brownback’s campaign for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

It calls for earned income to be taxed at the same marginal rate, unlike the current system, which has different tax brackets for different incomes. Typically, proponents of a flat tax call for eliminating most deductions except for a sizable individual exemption.

“We need a flat tax instead of the dreadful, incomprehensible tax code we now have,” Brownback wrote in the letter that announced the creation of his presidential exploratory committee.

Frequent visitors to TheAntiSam will remember Brownback’s previous flirtation with the flat tax. In March of 2006, Brownback held hearings on the Flat Tax with the stated goal of implementing it in Washington D.C.

Over at The Right’s Field, Matt makes an interesting comment on Brownback’s adoption of the flat tax platform for his presidential campaign:

What this does do, though, is define Brownback as a candidate with strong beliefs at a time when other leading Republican contenders are regularly lambasted for flip-flops and shifting political visions. Not every Republican will go for a flat tax, but it will certainly distinguish Brownback from other candidates - just as his stance on the Iraq war is unique for GOP candidates (save Pataki). Unlike Chuck Hagel, whose only hope is through voters valuing his principles, Brownback’s principles have appeal to a larger segment of the primary voting base. Standing up for one’s beliefs is a tactic that I’d recommend to any politician; it just happens to be something that can realistically be expect to propel Brownback to the nomination.

I agree. Brownback is certainly positioning himself as the candidate with principles. Perhaps not all GOP primary voters with agree with his principles, but compared to the other jokers in the running, Brownback comes out looking the least wishy-washy on the issues that matter most in the Republican Primary.

It’s Official: Brownback to Announce for the Presidency…

United States Senator
Sam Brownback (R-KS)

Will announce his intention to run for President of the United States this Saturday in Topeka, KS. Please join the Senator as he begins this historic quest from his home state.

When:
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Doors Open: 10:30 AM
Doors Close: 11:30 AM
Event Begins: 12:00 PM Sharp!

This event is by invitation only and is non-transferable!

Where:
Heritage Hall at the Kansas Expocentre
1 Expocentre Drive
Topeka, KS 66612

Please RSVP to:
Martin Gillespie (mgillespie@brownback.com)

Questions?
Please contact the Brownback for President campaign at (785) 220-2615.

###

PAID FOR BY BROWNBACK FOR PRESIDENT, EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE
P.O. Box 2008 | Topeka, KS 66601-2008 |

So what is Brownback up to? On one level it’s pretty obvious. John McCain and, to varying degrees, the rest of the GOP field have cast their lot with Bush and the surge. There’s nothing for a longshot like Brownback to gain by falling in line behind them, and plenty to gain by distinguishing himself on the issue. That’s particularly true given the exceedingly likely possibility that the surge will fail, at which point Brownback will look somewhere between sober and prophetic.

More interestingly, the move turns out to be pretty welcome among Brownback’s desired base of social conservatives. While 52 percent of Republicans support the surge according to a just-released AP/Ipsos poll, some 60 percent of white evangelicals oppose [a troop surge in Iraq], as do 56 percent of self-described conservatives. So we’re actually talking about a twofer here: shore up your base while positioning yourself to poach votes from the other guys. (Actually, a three-fer, since this has the added merit of being the substantively sane position.) Not bad for a day’s work.

I’ve always maintained that Brownback is crazy like a fox…

“I do not believe that sending more troops to Iraq is the answer,” Brownback said. “Iraq requires a political rather than a military solution.”

Brownback had previously supported a short-term increase in troop levels if it could help achieve long-term political stability, which the Bush administration has said it hopes a surge will help achieve.

But Brownback rejected that argument after meeting this week with several Iraqi leaders and U.S. military commanders.

“I came away from these meetings convinced that the United States should not increase its involvement until Sunnis and Shiia are more willing to cooperate with each other instead of shooting at each other,” Brownback said. “The best way to reach a democratic Iraq is to empower the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own nation-building.”

It is not in the U.S. interest to get deeply involved in sectarian strife, he said.

I have to admit, I never thought I would see the day. It certainly appears that Brownback is attempting to run to the left of the other GOP candidates on the Iraq war.

Brownback’s Iraq policy is certainly an epic political maneuver. It is a daring attempt to make some noise and differentiate himself from the pack. The telling moment will come in three weeks when Brownback’s first FEC quarterly filing (for Q4 of 2006) will be publicaly available. A candidate can have a lovely message, but it takes big bucks to reach those caucus goers.

If anyone has any info on his numbers before the official filing, I would love to hear.

Many conservatives had high hopes for Virginia’s George Allen and Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum–until they lost their Senate re-election races last year. And Evangelicals say they adore all-but-announced contender Sam Brownback, a former Evangelical who converted to Catholicism and is one of the Senate’s most ardent opponents of embryonic-stem-cell research and gay marriage. But they are skeptical that the Kansas Senator can broaden his appeal enough beyond religious voters to have a chance of winning.

Brownback now has to prove he has “what it takes” to run for president before the money and volunteers come pouring in from the conservative Christians. Ironically, money and volunteers are used as a metric for early success. Howard Dean overcame this same dilemma in 2003 by reaching out on the internet to build a vast small donor network but one look at Brownback’s pitiful website should make it obvious that internet strategy is currently not a priority.

Brownback will likely attempt to do the same thing except through existing church groups and bible studies. This takes plenty of face time, but time is the only resource Brownback has in his advantage at this point.